Marshall Sutherland

Tue, 05 Jul 2022 18:03:22 -0400

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

Is Retirement Dead? Most Americans Have No Retirement Savings | Adam Taggart
by Wealthion on YouTube

Six years ago, I wrote an article titled 'Grasshopper Nation', warning about how poorly prepared Americans are for retirement.

Sadly, the data has only gotten worse since then.

I’ll deliver the punchline here first, and then get into the underlying data:

Right now, as the largest generational cohort in history has reached retirement age, tens of millions of Baby Boomers in America have insufficient savings to retire or otherwise fund their living costs during their twilight years.

This is a massive economic and humanitarian crisis in the making, with no credible plans from the government currently on the table to address it.

In fact, we’re not even having a national discussion about it right now, because we’re not yet even acknowledging that we have a problem.

Until we shake free from this denial, we will continue to fall deeper into this hole of generational insolvency – while the timeline of consequences accelerates towards us at a faster rate.

Ok, now that I’ve got your attention, let’s look at the data...watch this video.

economy

Sat, 18 Jun 2022 16:23:02 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

#^50 Times People Were So Appalled By “Shrinkflation”, They Just Had To Share The Proof Online

Consumers around the world are increasingly paying more for a growing range of products in ways that don’t show up on receipts.

economy

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 19:23:09 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

Markets In Meltdown As 'Economic Hurricane' Slams Into The Consumer
by Wealthion on YouTube

The situation for the consumer continues to deteriorate - hot inflation, too much debt and a rising cost of capital, a fast-cooling housing market, and a deteriorating jobs picture -- including several emerging headwinds that were hardly on the radar until recently.

As always, the goal here is to keep you well-informed so that you’re able to take prudent action today to reduce your exposure to what’s ahead, and possibly even position yourself to prosper from it.

economy debt Federal Reserve

Fri, 27 May 2022 18:23:19 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

I hope you never need this advice, but with a recession looming, it is best to be prepared.

#^The Layoff Survival Handbook

Whether or not you perceive your job to be in imminent jeopardy, there’s a series of sensible steps to take now to defend yourself against becoming the victim of a layoff.

These steps will not only reduce your risk of being let go, but they’ll boost your performance, the value you offer an employer, and increase your satisfaction with your career. What’s not to like?

And should you be unable to avoid a layoff, you’ll be far better offer for having put these preparations in place beforehand. Especially if we indeed re-enter a period of mass layoffs like 2007-2009, when millions of other sacked workers will be suddenly competing for the few existing job openings out there.

economy

Sun, 15 May 2022 17:24:24 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

I got curious about employment numbers today after listening to some discussion of the matter. Here are the US employment numbers for recent years:

Image/photo

The Feb 2020 number (before the pandemic plunge) was 152.5M. The April 2022 number was 151.3M. So, despite the low unemployment rate numbers, 1.2M fewer people are working now. So, despite the headlines, employment has NOT recovered. But, it gets worse than that. As you can see there is a general upward trend, which is primarily a result of increasing population. If we look at the data 3 years earlier and compare Feb 2017 to April 2019, the number of employees increased by 4.8M. If we assume that pattern would have continued without the pandemic, the April 2022 number would have been (152.5 + 4.8) 157.3, or 6M more. So, is there any wonder why we have so many job openings? There are probably 6M people sitting on the sidelines.

Looking at the labor force participation rate over the same time period:

Image/photo

economy

Mon, 16 May 2022 12:49:31 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

I always prefer looking at more than just the unemployment stats because they alone don't give a full picture. If someone loses their job, that is bad news for unemployment, but if they want a new one, but get discouraged and give up trying, that is "good news" for unemployment.

Thu, 28 Apr 2022 08:21:25 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

Thought the supply chain issues were bad for the past year? Just wait!

#^‘Companies are beginning to panic’: Experts say China’s lockdowns will make inflation and the supply chain nightmare even worse

Experts say China's lockdowns will lead to a supply chain crunch on the west coast of the U.S. in the coming weeks, adding to four-decade high inflation.

economy

Wed, 19 Jan 2022 17:52:03 -0500

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

#^A former top Obama economist throws cold water on the Biden administration's favorite inflation argument: 'Corporate greed is a bad theory'

"Corporate greed is a bad theory of inflation," Jason Furman, a former top economist for President Barack Obama, said in an interview, adding, "I think almost everything other than the Federal Reserve is a sideshow when it comes to the dynamics of inflation."

Federal Reserve economy

Wed, 12 Jan 2022 17:18:32 -0500

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

#^Inflation rises 7% over the past year, highest since 1982

The consumer price index for December 2021 was expected to increase 7% from a year ago, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

A big difference between now and 1982 is that, in 1982, 7% inflation was GOOD news compared to the year before.

economy

Tue, 21 Dec 2021 13:36:54 -0500

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

Inflation “Going To Be A B!#ch” To Get Under Control, Analyst Warns | Wolf Richter
by Wealthion on YouTube

Inflation is really starting to bite.

The latest Consumer Price Index -- or CPI -- was released last week, coming out at 6.8%, the highest inflation rate the US has seen in 40 years.

Households pinched by these higher prices are asking: When will this stop?

Not anytime soon, says macro analyst Wolf Richter, who just issued a report warning that getting inflation under control from here will be a difficult and lengthy process -- especially as the process is being managed by "the most reckless Fed ever"

The Federal Reserve, whose policies created today's runaway prices, is now suddenly scrambling to put the inflation genie back into the bottle. It's accelerating it taper plans and now loudly talking of hiking rates, perhaps as soon as summer 2022.

This kind of monetary tightening in today's world, of course, threatens to crater asset prices and plunge the economy into recession.

Can the Fed somehow avoid that outcome?

Time will tell. But as Wolf predicts, the effort and complexity involved in trying to get today's inflation under control will undoubtedly "be a b!#ch".

economy

Mon, 01 Nov 2021 21:43:41 -0400

Marshall Sutherland

dwatney@hub.farthinghalearms.com

Don't wait until the last minute to buy anything, if you actually need it.

#^Iâ€™m A Twenty Year Truck Driver, I Will Tell You Why Americaâ€™s â€œShipping Crisisâ€ Will Not End

My prediction is that nothing is going to change and the shipping crisis is only going to get worse. Nobody in the supply chain wants to pay to solve the problem. They literally just wonâ€™t pay to solve the problem. At the point we are at now, things are so backed up that the backups THEMSELVES are causing container companies, ports, warehouses, and trucking companies to charge massive rate increases for doing literally NOTHING. Container companies have already decreased the maximum allowable times before containers have to be back to the port, and if the congestion is so bad that you canâ€™t get the container back into the port when it is due, the container company can charge massive late fees. The ports themselves will start charging massive storage fees for not getting containers out on time â€” storage charges alone can run into thousands of dollars a day. Warehouses can charge massive premiums for their services, and so can trucking companies. Chronic understaffing has led to this problem, but it is allowing these same companies to charge ten times more for regular services. Since theyâ€™re not paying the workers any more than they did last year or five years ago, the whole industry sits back and cashes in on the mess it created. In fact, the more things are backed up, the more every point of the supply chain cashes in. There is literally NO incentive to change, even if it means consumers have to do holiday shopping in July and pay triple for shipping.

economy