With over 60% of the American West, Southwest and Central Plains categorized as D3 (severe) drought or higher, AFBF conducted a third round of its survey to evaluate drought’s continued impact on farm and ranch businesses.
Across the surveyed region, respondents expected average crop yields to be down 38% this year because of drought conditions, with the biggest drop expected in Texas (yields reported down 68%), followed by Oklahoma (down 60%) and New Mexico (down 54%). Washington farmers are expecting the lowest yield decline (down 8%). One Arizona farmer commented:“Many of the fields near us are now fallow. Cropland is being converted to housing developments at an alarming rate. Over 10,000 new homes are expected within a 10-mile radius of my house--most within a 5-mile radius, all on cropland or former dairies. It is frustrating and alarming. Where will the food come from if we grow houses instead of food?”The overwhelming majority of fruits, tree nuts and vegetables are sourced from drought-stricken states where farmers are feeling forced to fallow land and destroy orchards, which will likely result in American consumers paying more for these goods and either partially relying on foreign supplies or shrinking the diversity of items they buy at the store. Drought conditions in the U.S. also risk global access to some items like almonds, since California produces 80% of the world’s supply, greatly limiting buyers’ procurement options. Shifting production to other states is not often feasible given the diversity of crop climate and soil requirements.
